Tokens locked at TGE (April 2025) under a 12-month cliff — 25% releasing at month 12, 75% vesting linearly over 24 months after. Cliff was originally April 22; delayed to May 9. Staking rewards follow the same schedule.
At 80% sell-through, the dominant variable is whether the demand side can absorb ~1.5–2.5 days of concentrated spot volume over 3–4 weeks.
Rewards drawn from a 200M HYPER pool emitted quarterly over 25 years (2M/quarter). All rewards in HYPER — no stablecoin yield.
| Period | Duration | APR | HYPER Earned |
|---|
| HYPER | USD |
|---|
Three scenarios, all assuming 80% sell-through. The sole variable is macro context on the demand side.
Vertical dashed = May 9 cliff unlock · Red dashed = 3× short liquidation ($0.126) · Green dashed = Fibonacci TPs · Red bands = short entry zones
| Scenario | Macro | Trough | vs Today | Principal @ trough | Comparable |
|---|
Post-cliff, ~2.8M HYPER/month continues vesting for 24 months — persistent background supply compressing the recovery ceiling in all scenarios.
| Token | Event | 30-day return | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| STRK | Jun 2024 cliff | −37.87% | 64M tokens, team + investors |
| ARB | Jun 2024 cliff | −29.94% | 92.6M tokens, team + advisors |
| APT | Jun 2024 cliff | −25.74% | 11.3M tokens, contributors |
| APT | Feb 2024 cliff | −17.94% | Repeat cliff event |
| APE | Mar 2023 cliff | −9.7% day-of | −77% over 7 months on linear vest |
| SUI | cliff unlock | +140% | Bull market outlier; demand > supply |
| AVAX | major unlock | +32% | Strong market backdrop |
HYPER's cliff is +37% of circulating supply overnight vs. typical <10%. Currently 86% below its July 2025 ATH of $0.69.
ATL $0.060 (Apr 22, 2025) → ATH $0.6898 (Jul 25, 2025). Current price is 5.6% recovered from ATL.
| Level | Price | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short zone 1 | $0.104–$0.115 | Entry | Round # + pre-unlock bounce ceiling |
| Short zone 2 | $0.152 | Entry | 14.6% sub-Fibonacci retracement |
| Short zone 3 | $0.205–$0.215 | Entry (high conviction) | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement |
| ATL re-test | $0.058–$0.062 | TP0.5 / Long entry | Natural support; post-dump accumulation zone |
| TP1 / Long R1 | $0.050 | Short TP / Long entry | Fib 127.2% ext — base scenario trough |
| TP2 / Long R2 | $0.038 | Short TP / Long entry | Fib 161.8% ext — pessimistic trough |
| Long T1 | $0.152 | Long target | 14.6% fib — first meaningful recovery |
| Long T2 | $0.209 | Long target | 23.6% fib retracement |
| Long T3 | $0.301 | Long target | 38.2% fib retracement |
Enter short (3× leverage) above current price ahead of the unlock, targeting the dump. US and Canadian users: Hyperliquid DEX only — all major offshore CEXs are geo-blocked. Coinbase and Kraken do not list HYPER futures.
| Target | Exit | Gross P&L | Net P&L after funding |
Return | Scenario |
|---|
| Venue | Type | US | Canada | HYPER Listed | Leverage | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid DEX | Perp | ✓ | ✓ | Verify | Up to 50× | Permissionless, no KYC, wallet connect |
| Binance | Perp | ✗ | ✗ | ✓ 75× | 75× | Geo-blocked US + Canada |
| Bybit / OKX / Gate | Perp | ✗ | ✗ | Likely ✓ | — | All exited or geo-blocked US + Canada |
| Coinbase Advanced | Spot sell | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 1× | Sell spot now, rebuy post-dump. HYPER-USD live since Dec 10, 2025 |
Buy the post-unlock dip. Enter at or near trough price, target Fibonacci recovery levels. The thesis: forced selling by cliff recipients creates a temporary dislocation that recovers as supply is absorbed.
Suggested entries: $0.042 (pessimistic trough) · $0.055 (base trough) · $0.060 (ATL re-test)
| Target | Exit | Gross P&L | Net P&L after funding |
Return | Level |
|---|
| Venue | Type | US | Canada | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coinbase Advanced | Spot buy | ✓ | ✓ | HYPER-USD listed Dec 10, 2025. Best for unleveraged accumulation |
| Hyperliquid DEX | Perp long | ✓ | ✓ | Permissionless, no KYC. Same venue as the short, opposite direction. Longs at trough receive funding from shorts covering |
| Kraken | Spot | ✓ | ✓ | HYPER not yet listed as of April 2026. Monitor for listing |
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Liquidation calculated at 0.5% maintenance margin. Funding estimated at 0.3%/day. Price via CoinGecko API. Comparables: Disruption Banking (June 2024), Keyrock 16,000-unlock study.